Long-form analysis from Itô Research. Read the full essays on Substack and follow each issue as they are released.
Prediction markets are most interesting before settlement: when liquidity makes belief transferable, information reprices, and non-physical value becomes visible. Settlement is only the final accounting; the value is created in the process between allocation, uncertainty, and repricing.
Rembrandt van Rijn, "The Night Watch" (De Nachtwacht), 1642. Oil on canvas, 379.5 × 453.5 cm. Rijksmuseum, Amsterdam.
The essay frames modern professional life as a shift from linear career EV toward forced asymmetric bets. As credential pathways decay faster than they pay back, risk-taking is no longer optional but also self-defeating at system scale.
Titian, "Sisyphus," 1548–1549. Museo del Prado.
Western labor is undergoing a direct repricing, not a temporary slowdown. If output can be approximated at a fraction of labor cost, repricing is inevitable. The impact appears first in hiring freezes before broad layoffs.
Goya, "Witches' Sabbath," c. 1789.